Danger Zone

May 23, 2022
Tufts political scientist Beckley (Unrivaled) and Johns Hopkins global affairs scholar Brands (coauthor, The Lessons of Tragedy) deliver a robust reconsideration of Chinese-American relations. Sketching the scenario of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2025, the authors argue that such an attack would not be the “inevitable outcome of China’s growing strength and confidence,” but a gamble made by Chinese leaders fearful that the country is on the cusp of decline. According to Beckley and Brands, China is rapidly approaching a “slow-motion demographic catastrophe” brought about by the decades-long “One Child Policy.” The authors also note that China’s historic enemy, Japan, is engaged in a massive military buildup supported by the U.S. and contend that bad loans made through China’s Belt and Road Initiative will result in “hundreds of billions of dollars in losses.” To combat the threat of Chinese aggression, Beckley and Brands call on U.S. leaders to follow President Truman’s strategy of countering Soviet influence in the years after WWII. Specifically, they advocate for the hacking of China’s censorship and surveillance systems and the establishment of a “free-world economic bloc” that can outspend China on research and development. Though the authors underplay the risks involved, they provide plenty of evidence that China is not as mighty as it seems. The result is a provocative and noteworthy contribution to the debate over what the U.S. should do about China.